AP Politics - Part 2

The following article was written for MyInd Makers. Pasting it here for reference: 

In part-1 of this series, we had spoken about how Andhra Pradesh is the least talked about state in the non-Telugu media. This was in direct contrast to how AP was constantly in the news in the 2018 to 2019 period. The noise that Chandrababu Naidu and TDP made after they came out of NDA in 2018 often reached the levels of abuse unheard of before. The scale of debacle of the TDP that ensued in the 2019 elections was also unheard of before! The fluctuating fortunes of the TDP over its 40-year-old history are well documented. Chandrababu Naidu has been at the helm of the party for nearly 28 years in these 40 years. And has overseen 2 victories and 3 crushing defeats in assembly elections. The 2019 was the worst.

But being the wily politician that he is, Chandrababu Naidu didn’t take too long to try and warm up to the BJP! Even with the minimal MPs that he had, he announced support to the abrogation of Article 370 and then many other subsequent legislations that the Modi government bought in. When Jagan proposed the 3-capital plan, Chandrababu and his cohort media started singing a new song – everything is ready in Amaravati! This was in direct contrast to the vitriol they spewed on Modi regarding the building of the capital in Amaravati. This change of heart did not come because the BJP suddenly became very strong in AP. In fact, the BJP is still not a major player in Andhra Pradesh but Chandrababu was desperate to get back into the good books of Modi because of the mandate Modi received in the country.

With COVID hitting in early 2020, the TDP basically could not get the ground running up until late 2021. It is during this time period that they trained and ramped up Chandrababu Naidu’s son, Lokesh. Lokesh had the image of a pappu, until the 2019 elections. Many memes were made on how he pronounces Telugu words and how he doesn’t know many basics. By end of 2021, Lokesh was a transformed leader. He shed weight and also shed any inhibitions while delivering speeches.

Meanwhile, the political slugfest in AP was drowning into new depths every day. Vulgar comments on various leaders became a norm. At one stage, when the TDP MLAs were commenting on a leaked phone call of a YSRCP minister with a lady, the YSRCP retorted by asking if Chandrababu Naidu is the father of Lokesh in the first place. This led to the now famous press conference where Chandrababu Naidu cried inconsolably at how his wife has now been dragged into this dirty slugfest. This was also the turning point that the TDP was looking for. Chandrababu gained a lot of sympathy for the manner in which his wife (and NTR’s daughter) was insulted in the Assembly. Many neutral voters were also disgusted at what transpired in the Assembly.

It was around this time that the party also decided that Lokesh will take up a padayatra that will span a full year. He was truly ready to mingle with people and also communicate better. The TDP also came up with a catchy slogan – “Pscyho povali, cycle ravali” – literally translating to “The Psycho should go, the Cycle should come”. Psycho refers to Jagan Mohan Reddy. Cycle refers to the TDP’s election symbol.

Amidst this came the MLC election schedule – elections were scheduled for 3 graduate constituencies, 2 teacher constituencies and 4 local body constituencies. The 4 local body results were a foregone conclusion given the majority YSRCP had. It was the graduate and teacher constituencies that was grabbing the attention and space in the media.

In a stunning upset, the TDP won all 3 graduate constituencies. The 2 teachers’ constituencies were won by the YSRCP.  MLC elections are generally spread across multiple MLA constituencies. In this case, elections were held across 109 MLA constituencies with only the graduates as the voters, for 3 MLC seats. Everyone saw this as on the biggest opinion poll ever because of the spread! Even though opinion polls continue to predict a massive majority for the YSRCP, the impact of these real victories can never be understated. These provide fuel to the sagging fortunes of a political party.

However, the bigger push for the TDP came when Jagan Mohan Reddy arrested Chandrababu Naidu in September 2023! The prolonged stay in the jail further created larger sympathy in favour of Chandrababu Naidu. Similar to the unsavoury assembly incident, this arrest also created a large sympathy amongst the neutral voters. Normally reluctant people took to the streets to protest against this arrest. The facts of the case aside, the emotional aspect of this arrest was perhaps misread by Jagan Mohan Reddy. Yes, the electoral impact needs to be seen but it is now undeniable that the arrest has certainly helped speed up the formal alliance between the TDP and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party.  

Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena party is already in alliance with the BJP and is part of the NDA. However, with the arrest of Chandrababu, Pawan Kalyan did not want to hold back anymore on announcing his alliance with the TDP, so he went ahead and announced an alliance unilaterally. In part-3 of this series, we will discuss the politics of the Jana Sena party and the overall scenario for the 2024 elections.