Telangana by-polls prove that 2023 election is going to be a fight between TRS and BJP: The downfall of Congress and challenges for BJP

The following article was written for OpIndia. Pasting it here for reference.

The results of yet another much-awaited by-poll in Telangana were declared yesterday. The TRS has emerged victorious in this election by beating the BJP with a margin of about 10,000 votes. We had earlier discussed the background of this election in the Munugodu constituency in Telangana. As the headline aptly indicates, the TRS literally put in its entire might for this prestigious election – 88 MLAs of the TRS stayed put in the constituency for 2-3 weeks; the entire cabinet made multiple rounds; the CM himself was in charge for a village and also held a huge public meeting towards the end of the campaigning. 

In addition to this large-scale deployment, the TRS also deployed various campaign strategies that included allying with the Communists (2004-14, this seat was with the Communists); KTR calling up local BJP leaders and impressing upon them the various schemes of TRS that are benefitting the people; last minute GOs that benefit the areas just across the border of Munugodu constituency; large scale distribution of certain goodies etc. All these have paid off well for the party, as is evident from the fact that the party led in 12 of the 15 rounds of counting. 

However, as everyone in the media have repeatedly pointed out – TRS’s victory margin is totally disproportionate to the scale of their investment into this election. When the entire cabinet and almost the entire Legislature party stayed put in the constituency and all you could do was to conjure up a 5% victory margin, it also speaks quite highly of the spirited challenge that the BJP has put into this election. While of course, the spirited campaign is a positive aspect of the BJP, the result of this election also indicates the mountainous challenge that is ahead for the BJP in Telangana. 

The by-poll was necessitated because the sitting MLA from Congress, Mr Komatireddy Rajagopal Reddy quit the congress party and joined the BJP. In the 2018 elections, he won 97,000 votes as against the 75000 votes by TRS and 12000 votes by the BJP. In this election, he won nearly 87,000 votes – indicating his stronghold on the constituency. The BJP has to continue to put in stronger efforts to nurture such strong leaders across all 33 districts in the state. 

One of the key reasons for the rise of the BJP in Telangana is because of its spirited public engagement efforts. The Party President, Mr Bandi Sanjay Kumar has completed 4 phases of his padayatra, completing walking nearly 1200 km across the state. Union Cabinet Minister Kishan Reddy is in the state every weekend, meeting people. Many leaders from Telangana have been given key roles in the national organization and their on-ground presence is really helping the party build their messaging and connect. 

Another key reason for the rise of the BJP in Telangana is because of the disenchantment that is setting in with KCR’s family rule in Telangana. For the BJP to fully utilize this sentiment, it has a lot of catching up to do in terms of grooming more local leaders and the messaging of what it can offer if voted to power.  TRS party’s messaging across various social media and mainstream media outlets is by far more visible than that of the BJP.

There is another big challenge for the BJP – and that is the Congress party! This election indicates that the downfall of the Congress party in Telangana is a continuously successful process! This particular seat was held by the Congress party earlier. The MP under whose constituency Munugodu falls is also from the Congress party (a disgruntled one now). Rahul Gandhi was in Telangana for nearly 10 days, during which the by-poll was held, as part of his Bharat Jodo Yatra. And yet the Congress party lost its deposit yesterday. 

The story is not just about the loss of its deposit. The Congress party got about 24000 votes (nearly 10%) in yesterday’s election. The Congress party has such a vote bank in many constituencies across the state and that vote bank doesn’t necessarily automatically trend towards the BJP. We have seen earlier also that this vote bank splits between the TRS and the BJP. Hence the uphill challenge for the BJP is to ensure that this vote bank moves towards the BJP as much as possible. A weakened Congress is certainly ensuring a rise of the BJP, but is it enough to win power? The answer to that question today is no. 

As indicated in many previous articles, the Telangana BJP needs to ensure that the WB result is not replicated in the 2023 elections. For this, in addition to the big picture, there are many small things that need to be taken care of. The party has an enthused cadre and an equally committed volunteer workforce to help in creating a narrative, spreading the message and in campaigning. The TRS is as formidable a force as the TMC is. Whilst KCR can of course not deploy this kind of strength in the 2023 assembly elections, he still has a good foothold on many leaders and areas of Telangana. The 2023 elections are a fight between TRS and the BJP. In the past 4 years, both parties have seen ups and downs in elections, so we know how close the fight will be! 

Jairam Ramesh mentions 5 issues on which he wants debates to take place: Here are the things he should consider before complaining

 The following article was written for OpIndia. Pasting it here for reference: 

The General Secretary of Indian National Congress, newly appointed as in-charge of Communication, Jairam Ramesh did a podcast with the Editor of ANI, Smita Prakash. He was upset that while he is ready to debate on topics related to economics, constitution and politics, the media is focussed on the cost of the T-Shirt that Rahul Gandhi wears, who he meets etc. Jairam Ramesh forgot that the debate around the cost of dresses was started by Rahul Gandhi himself, but we are not getting into that debate in this article.

At around the 48:00 minute in this video, in quick succession, Jairam Ramesh mentioned 5 points on which he wanted debates to happen, but was upset that those don’t happen. So, I thought it would be good to discuss his 5 points in a detailed article.

1.Political centralisation is results in states getting weaker.

Every time Congress party says something like this, my mind immediately goes to the below picture from the Invest Karnataka Summit from the year 2016.

On stage you can see a long list of Union Cabinet ministers along with the Chief Minister of Karnataka. What’s so great about the picture you may ask? The union ministers all represent the BJP and the Karnataka Chief minister represents the Congress party. So what? You may wonder! Below is a picture from the Vibrant Gujarat Summit in the year 2013.

You do not see a single Union Cabinet minister, because it was the UPA that was in power at the centre and therefore they used to make sure that Union ministers are not at summits organised by the BJP led governments in the state!

The 2016 Karnataka picture is not an exception. Accompanied by a host of his colleagues, India’s Finance Minister spoke at West Bengal Investor Summit in 2015; and inaugurated the Make in Odisha conclave in 2016 – both ruled by staunch opponents of the BJP. All these participations are in addition to an equivalent participation in BJP-ruled states too.

But here’s what is worse – in 2015, Prime Minister Narendra Modi requested the Chief Ministers of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka to join him on his China tour. Karnataka Chief Minister, Siddaramaiah (from the Congress party) refused to travel with the PM for political reasons. It is the Congress party that played petty politics at the risk of investments to the state of Karnataka (incidentally the home state of Jairam Ramesh!) and today wants a debate on “Political centralisation is results in states getting weaker”!

It is not just the participation at the investment summits that can be highlighted about the Narendra Modi governments efforts to make all states stronger. At a media summit, the then Punjab Chief Minister, Amarinder Singh was asked - “Is it easy working with the center?”. Pat comes the reply from Captain Amarinder Singh – “I have no problems. I am getting full co-operation”. 

You may snark and say Amarinder Singh now joined the BJP. But then at the same summit in the same panel was Chief Minister H.D.Kumaraswamy who reiterated the same sentiment – “I have no problems working with the center”. We have had KCR himself and his son KTR also praise the Modi government for assisting the state of Telangana, several times. As recently as 2 days back, the Rajasthan’s Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot praised the Union minister Prahalad Joshi for helping them with the coal crisis.

You may still be a cynic and say that all these folks are political opportunists who will ally with the BJP or are angry with the Congress party. And for that argument, I give you this - Kerala Chief Minister, Pinarayi Vijayan. Despite all that clamor of social media during the Kerala floods, he has publicly said “it shows how supportive the Centre has been towards Kerala”. Certainly, you cannot accuse the Communists of helping the BJP!

All these statements of the Chief Ministers are a far cry from how it used to be during the UPA. Sample this – in the year 2011, the Congress Chief Minister of Maharashtra accused the Congress led UPA central government of not giving enough funds to Maharashtra!

The GST Council is on the best examples of involving all states in the decision-making process of the states. A total of 47 meetings have been held so far, and except for one meeting, all decisions in all these meetings were taken unanimously. Can you even begin to imagine the scale of this effort?

Today, states get 10% more money than what they used to get pre-2015 from Central revenues. Today, all states get proportionate share in 100s of infrastructure projects (ranging from roads to rail to airports to bridges to tunnels and so on!). Today, MPs cutting across party lines appreciate the PM of clearing long pending projects in their areas. Would all of this have been possible with a vengeful Congress government at the helm of affairs? Do all of these examples really mean that the states are getting weaker?

 

 

2.Constitutional bodies getting weaker.

Someone says Constitutional bodies are getting weaker and my mind immediately goes to this letter written by the then Chief Election Commissioner to the President of India, accusing the Election Commissioner Navin Chawla of leaking information to the Congress party. Or to the fact that another former CEC, M.S.Gill, joined the Congress party immediately after his retirement and soon became a minister in a Congress led government.

Speaking of Constitutional bodies, the Productivity of the 15th Lok Sabha has been the worst in the last 50 years! Imagine, the worst ever! Sonia Gandhi’s UPA was in power during this term and in fact were in their 2^nd term. The 16^th Lok Sabha (2014 to 2019) worked 20% more hours than the 15^th LS, but more importantly, the “proportion of time spent by 16th Lok Sabha on legislation (32%) is higher than other Lok Sabhas”. 32% higher than the other Lok Sabhas! And the Congress makes an argument that Constitutional bodies are getting weaker?

Speaking of Constitutional bodies, many of the far-reaching recommendations of the 14^th and 15^th Finance Commissions were accepted in totality, thus strengthening both the centre and the states. In fact, the Modi government strengthened the Finance Commissions themselves by laying out fresh guidelines that make use of latest information and technology to help recommend the best course of action for the country!

Speaking of Constitutional bodies, we have witnessed how the office of the Prime Minister of India has been abjectly surrendered during the rule of Sonia Gandhi’s UPA (examples galore).

3.Constitution being ignored.

History is replete with examples of how the Congress party “ignored” the Constitution! The 100 times it dismissed popularly elected state governments; the imposition of Emergency in the country and subsequent amendments to the constitution; and the creation of parallel power structures (such as the all-powerful NAC under Sonia Gandhi), are all prime examples of how the Congress party has actually ignored the Constitution. And yet the newly appointed Communications in-charge of the Congress party actually wants us to believe that the Constitution is being ignored by the BJP!

4.Polarisation is taking place. And is intensifying.

A very simple metric demolishes this argument to pieces. There were nearly 70-80 documented large riots in India when the Congress was in power. There are not even 10 large riots documented in India when the BJP was in power (for 14 years now). The father of polarisation is the Congress party. Congress Chief Ministers have accused Congress MPs of engineering riots to grab their chair – can anything get more worse than this? The Congress is shocked that today many Hindus are vocal about their way of life; their practices and their beliefs. And unable to grasp this awakening, they resort to a silly classification of “polarisation”!

5.Economic Inequality is increasing.

Centuries old cliché that doesn’t hold much relevance to today’s India. Rahul Gandhi’s stress on Ambani and Adani has becoming so boring that even his own state CMs are ignoring his rhetoric now. India has seen a record number of Income Tax filers; a record number of additions to the EPFO portal; a record number of automobile sales; a record number of mobile manufacturing and sales; we can go on and on about how today’s India is working hard to bridge the inequality gap. The Congress is however struck with this broken record of Ambani-Adani.

 

Jairam Ramesh’s diatribe against the media is nothing new. The Congress’s latest strategy seems to be play the victim by saying they aren’t getting enough space to speak. Apart from a few delusional folks in the Congress, there is no one who believes that Congress party doesn’t get enough space! It is high time they realise that both their message and messenger need to change. It is high time they stop blaming people of India for not realising the awesomeness of Rahul Gandhi.