Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Bye-Elections in AP: What the results will mean...

A lot of folks have asked about how the numbers are stacked up in the AP Assembly. Many are curious if the Congress government will fall after yesterday's by-poll, and if so - what are the numbers required for that.

The below chart gives you a quick summary of the seat position after the 2009 general election versus today. 

We have had many bypolls since 2009, and hence the increase/decrease in seats of some parties. 

Anyways, as was widely expected, yesterday's bypoll in 18 assembly and 1 lok sabha constituency saw more than 80% polling. These areas are known for their high polling percentages. A couple of constituencies saw more than 85% polling too!! Snapshot from The eenadu report below:

Earlier bypolls where YSRCP contested also saw such high polling percentages. These high percentages only indicate that there will be a sweep in favour of YSRCP in almost all these elections. I believe YSRCP will win anywhere between 15-18 seats (wouldn't be surprised if it won all 18). Results will be out on the 15th of June. 

What will be the significance of this victory? 


Needless to say, this will be a huge shot in the arm for this party. Jagan can go to town proclaiming that he is not guilty in the people's court. And sadly, this will also be seen a green signal to resort to as much corruption as possible. The rise and rise of Jagan till the next Assembly election seems inevitable. 


Technically, these seats were not theirs to begin with. However, they had significant presence in some of them (as can be seen from the 2009 results here). If their vote share goes down, this will be a further blow to a party that is already plagued with desertations and disappointments from Telangana leaders. Some pollsters are predicting that TDP might win a couple of seats, but I think that even it it wins 1-3 seats, it still would not enthuse the cadre much. The big loss here will only reinforce the fact that TDP needs to find new ideas (and probably new leaders) to emerge as the credible alternative to Jagan. 

For Congress

In all probability, more MLAs will desert the Congress. Even before the elections are over, 2 MLAs have resigned! Post the elections, there will again be massive infighting in the Congress over who should take responsibility, who should quit etc. There is a huge probability that the government will collapse and we will see a mid-term poll or just President's rule. Either way, the Congress is doomed (in the near future). Though the "national" media will not say it, these results will be a slap on the face of the Gandhi family. 

For the state of Andhra Pradesh

It is (and will be) quite obvious that the majority of people in the state don't worry about the massive corruption scandals rocking it. The politics of emotion and free entitlements will rule the roost. This obviously means that the economy is in for some bad days ahead. 

If the government does not miraculously collapse, it will still be plagued by a policy paralysis given the wafer-thin majority it will have. 

If the government collapses and mid-term polls are announced - no party can win an absolute majority. In all probability, YSRCP and TRS will emerge with significant seats between them. If they desire, a coalition government will be formed - which will be a disaster. 

A President's rule will not achieve anything but delay Congress's eventual demolition. 

Finally, if the government does not miraculously collapse, elections to all local bodies are due in Andhra Pradesh. YSRCP will dent both the TDP and the Congress then too. Looks like it is just a matter of time before we have a new government in AP. 

The sad part is this - no alternative looks promising. 

Bottom Line - AP is heading towards more bad times. 


Anonymous said...

i'm appearing Civil Services Examinations and i am enrolled with Thank you for this post as it really helped me regarding preparation of ias

Anonymous said...

Sudhir, how quickly do you see a patch up between the first family and Jagan's family? I see a quid pro quo soon, Jagan goes out on bail, case lingers on, has a homecoming nd then becomes the CM before the first family waits for its chance t hit back at him in years ahead.

Vamsi said...

AP is doomed.. Defintely YES.

People are frustated as such with all these.. I hope TDP gains something and comes to power the next time. CBN can only repair the state.
PS: Iam not a TDP follower.

CodeNameV said...

Heheee .... I like the statement - "one promoted to RS" ... I guess that particular "star" leader needs to explain why he didnt align with Congress in 2009 polls if he now thinks INC is delivering "social justice".

Aaa babu aa nadu icchina maata
samajika nyayame tana baata
ee roju prati puta okate paata
manchi madam ichindi manchi vaataa!

Asalu I think whoever wrote all the dialogues for his epic meeting declaring the existence of his party before 2009 polls needs to be given a national award for best political speech writing.

Gullible AP people may probably be cheated again. This time by a leader who is known to be a cheat!

However, I am eagerly waiting to see how BJP performs in Parakala. It would be interesting to see if BJP contributes to any vote swing away from Congress.

An off shoot question, Modi is quite well known in every village in AP, thanks to huge presence of local newspapers like Eenadu. Would it work in favor of BJP if he campaigns?

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