Monday, June 18, 2012

Bye-Elections in AP: The final results, %age votes etc

The results for the 18 assembly and 1 Lok Sabha bypoll in AP were announced on the 15th of June. As expected, the YSRCP sweeped these polls. It won a whopping 15 seats, gave a very tough fight in one, and lost 2. It also won the Nellore Lok Sabha seat by a whopping margin. There are a few key takeaways from these polls.

The mind-blowing winning percentages.

Take a look at the table below. Please compare the winning percentages of the YSRCP candidates. Most of them are near to a whopping 50% (some have crossed that too). 

In all these 18 seats combined, the Congress and the TDP have lost significant vote percentage compared to 2009 (if you compare Cong+PRP in 2009 to now, the Congress is the biggest loser in this election)

The polling percentages are really mind-blowing. Jagan Mohan Reddy did not just win - he won big time. He decimated his opponents and gave them one of their biggest defeats. YSRCP on an average polled a whopping 46.85% of votes in a three-cornered contest. The winning margins have also drastically increased from 2009. 

In our democratic system in which "first past the post" wins, a winning percentage of ~35% will ensure a candidate will win. YSRCP's humungous winning vote percentage is not an aberration. Unless something dramatic happens before the next assembly election, we will see a similar trend repeat across the state. 

An earlier blogpost also detailed the increase in the polling percentages since 2009. 

The Ramachandrapuram result

Mr. Pilli Subash Chandra Bose was a minister in the Congress government in 2009 and he quit the party to join YSRCP. He was one of the most vocal Jagan supporters. And he lost in this election - by a margin of ~12000 votes! Observers are saying that he lost because he is viewed a very corrupt person!!! 

This argument is stumping! A candidate perceived as corrupt at the local level has been made to eat the humble pie. Jagan's party (whose corruption has been detailed here) however has been given a resounding victory!! Corruption does seem to be an issue at the micro level but doesn't seem to matter a wee bit also the macro level. With such anomalies, it is extremely difficult to properly analyse the impact of corruption in the upcoming elections. 

The Parkal result

This seat is in Telangana. The TRS was expected to win this seat very comfortably. However, the YSRCP put up a good fight here too. TRS won this seat by a thin margin of ~1500 votes. There are multiple ways of interpreting this result - chief among them being that the demand of Telangana statehood perhaps lost it's fizzle. Or perhaps the demand of a separate is not as widespread as it is believed to be. The YSRCP candidate has a good following in this constituency - perhaps it is her core vote bank that is sticking with her. Either way, the narrow victory margin of TRS definetely puts a question mark over the party's impact in the entire Telangana region. 

What this means to AP

An earlier blogpost detailed this aspect too. The politics of emotion and free entitlements will rule the roost. Corruption matters zilch. Governance will come to a standstill (not that it is running now) because of expected infighting within the ruling party. 

The biggest loser seems to be the state of Andhra Pradesh. 

Final seat position in the Assembly. 

This is how the Assembly will look now.


CodeNameV said...

I was actually looking for a closer fight in Parakala. Well, it was not so interesting! Barring the fact that the margin was thin, there is little that really is interesting in the results.

However, Ramachandrapuram and Narasapuram win indicates how congress is deeply entrenched in coastal areas. Does this mean that people in coastal areas are really not interested in Jagan and his party? We cant really say because Rajampet and Ongole did register big wins for YSRCP. I think the trend is not very clear yet in Coastal Areas. Unless Krishna, Godavari and Visakha districts become clear, we cant really conclude much on Coastal areas. But yes, Jagan is going to emerge as a important player in 2014. Word is that Congress will make a deal with Jagan if they survive till 2014. I am eagerly looking forward to any more MLAs going out of INC putting INC close to loosing power.

Do you think Jagan will take the chance and pull some MLAs into his party for an early poll so he can capitalize on the current sympathy people have for him? I also think money power played a very huge role in these elections.

Rohith said...

People really didnt believe the Jagan earned so much in corrupt manner. If you look at it, this way of robbing the society is new to many people in AP or even India.

When CBN or YSR cabinet(being govt servants) are not behind the bars for the corruption scandals they are involved in, it is natural for people to believe that Jagan is being targeted unfairly (or even unjustly without any reason). I believe corruption matters to people. In this case, they just didnt understand the way in which Jagan did it.

Sudhir said...

@CodeNameV - I thought Parkal will easily go to TRS. Plus there was also lot of discussion on BJP rising as an alternate force. I guess this result also reinforced the need for stronger cadre for BJP.

I was actually surprised when many folks were saying that Bose lost because he was corrupt! Irony at its best actually :D. That said, I think YSR's stronghold was coastal - and Jagan does seem to be creating a dent. There are other places in coastal where he notched up interesting wins.

Even if his vote % comes down by 10% in 2014, he will still win a 36% vote share which is very very scary :(.

Jagan already pulled 2 MLAs into his party. I think he has many coverts of his in the congress party and will pull them in batches - not at one time only.

INC will lose power - that is a given. It is the alternative that is scary.

@Rohith - hmmm...if people didn't understand the way Jagan did it, i think the opposition parties are squarely to blame. Nevertheless, interesting observation here.


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Unknown said...

It is an expected result for the Congress party due to it's weak leadership and huge amounts of corruption.So they will lose the next elections also

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