Bye-Elections in AP: The final results, %age votes etc

The results for the 18 assembly and 1 Lok Sabha bypoll in AP were announced on the 15th of June. As expected, the YSRCP sweeped these polls. It won a whopping 15 seats, gave a very tough fight in one, and lost 2. It also won the Nellore Lok Sabha seat by a whopping margin. There are a few key takeaways from these polls.

The mind-blowing winning percentages.

Take a look at the table below. Please compare the winning percentages of the YSRCP candidates. Most of them are near to a whopping 50% (some have crossed that too). 

In all these 18 seats combined, the Congress and the TDP have lost significant vote percentage compared to 2009 (if you compare Cong+PRP in 2009 to now, the Congress is the biggest loser in this election)

The polling percentages are really mind-blowing. Jagan Mohan Reddy did not just win - he won big time. He decimated his opponents and gave them one of their biggest defeats. YSRCP on an average polled a whopping 46.85% of votes in a three-cornered contest. The winning margins have also drastically increased from 2009. 

In our democratic system in which "first past the post" wins, a winning percentage of ~35% will ensure a candidate will win. YSRCP's humungous winning vote percentage is not an aberration. Unless something dramatic happens before the next assembly election, we will see a similar trend repeat across the state. 

An earlier blogpost also detailed the increase in the polling percentages since 2009. 

The Ramachandrapuram result

Mr. Pilli Subash Chandra Bose was a minister in the Congress government in 2009 and he quit the party to join YSRCP. He was one of the most vocal Jagan supporters. And he lost in this election - by a margin of ~12000 votes! Observers are saying that he lost because he is viewed a very corrupt person!!! 

This argument is stumping! A candidate perceived as corrupt at the local level has been made to eat the humble pie. Jagan's party (whose corruption has been detailed here) however has been given a resounding victory!! Corruption does seem to be an issue at the micro level but doesn't seem to matter a wee bit also the macro level. With such anomalies, it is extremely difficult to properly analyse the impact of corruption in the upcoming elections. 

The Parkal result

This seat is in Telangana. The TRS was expected to win this seat very comfortably. However, the YSRCP put up a good fight here too. TRS won this seat by a thin margin of ~1500 votes. There are multiple ways of interpreting this result - chief among them being that the demand of Telangana statehood perhaps lost it's fizzle. Or perhaps the demand of a separate is not as widespread as it is believed to be. The YSRCP candidate has a good following in this constituency - perhaps it is her core vote bank that is sticking with her. Either way, the narrow victory margin of TRS definetely puts a question mark over the party's impact in the entire Telangana region. 

What this means to AP

An earlier blogpost detailed this aspect too. The politics of emotion and free entitlements will rule the roost. Corruption matters zilch. Governance will come to a standstill (not that it is running now) because of expected infighting within the ruling party. 


The biggest loser seems to be the state of Andhra Pradesh. 

Final seat position in the Assembly. 

This is how the Assembly will look now.

Bye-Elections in AP: What the results will mean...

A lot of folks have asked about how the numbers are stacked up in the AP Assembly. Many are curious if the Congress government will fall after yesterday's by-poll, and if so - what are the numbers required for that.

The below chart gives you a quick summary of the seat position after the 2009 general election versus today. 

We have had many bypolls since 2009, and hence the increase/decrease in seats of some parties. 


Anyways, as was widely expected, yesterday's bypoll in 18 assembly and 1 lok sabha constituency saw more than 80% polling. These areas are known for their high polling percentages. A couple of constituencies saw more than 85% polling too!! Snapshot from The eenadu report below:

Earlier bypolls where YSRCP contested also saw such high polling percentages. These high percentages only indicate that there will be a sweep in favour of YSRCP in almost all these elections. I believe YSRCP will win anywhere between 15-18 seats (wouldn't be surprised if it won all 18). Results will be out on the 15th of June. 

What will be the significance of this victory? 

For YSRCP

Needless to say, this will be a huge shot in the arm for this party. Jagan can go to town proclaiming that he is not guilty in the people's court. And sadly, this will also be seen a green signal to resort to as much corruption as possible. The rise and rise of Jagan till the next Assembly election seems inevitable. 

For TDP

Technically, these seats were not theirs to begin with. However, they had significant presence in some of them (as can be seen from the 2009 results here). If their vote share goes down, this will be a further blow to a party that is already plagued with desertations and disappointments from Telangana leaders. Some pollsters are predicting that TDP might win a couple of seats, but I think that even it it wins 1-3 seats, it still would not enthuse the cadre much. The big loss here will only reinforce the fact that TDP needs to find new ideas (and probably new leaders) to emerge as the credible alternative to Jagan. 

For Congress

In all probability, more MLAs will desert the Congress. Even before the elections are over, 2 MLAs have resigned! Post the elections, there will again be massive infighting in the Congress over who should take responsibility, who should quit etc. There is a huge probability that the government will collapse and we will see a mid-term poll or just President's rule. Either way, the Congress is doomed (in the near future). Though the "national" media will not say it, these results will be a slap on the face of the Gandhi family. 

For the state of Andhra Pradesh

It is (and will be) quite obvious that the majority of people in the state don't worry about the massive corruption scandals rocking it. The politics of emotion and free entitlements will rule the roost. This obviously means that the economy is in for some bad days ahead. 

If the government does not miraculously collapse, it will still be plagued by a policy paralysis given the wafer-thin majority it will have. 

If the government collapses and mid-term polls are announced - no party can win an absolute majority. In all probability, YSRCP and TRS will emerge with significant seats between them. If they desire, a coalition government will be formed - which will be a disaster. 

A President's rule will not achieve anything but delay Congress's eventual demolition. 

Finally, if the government does not miraculously collapse, elections to all local bodies are due in Andhra Pradesh. YSRCP will dent both the TDP and the Congress then too. Looks like it is just a matter of time before we have a new government in AP. 

The sad part is this - no alternative looks promising. 

Bottom Line - AP is heading towards more bad times. 

Bye-Elections in AP: The politics over deaths

The above news item was published a day after Jagan Mohan Reddy was arrested by the CBI. This was published in Sakshi newspaper, that is owned by Jagan Mohan Reddy himself. The headline roughly translates:

"Hearts of 18 people stopped". 

The report details how 18 people died after hearing the news of Jagan's arrest. 

The next day, we had the below news item. 

This news item increased the number of dead to 48. 48 people died in the state of Andhra Pradesh (either suicide or due to depression/shock) because Jagan Mohan Reddy was arrested by the CBI. 

These two news items pretty much summarize the "politics of deaths" that Mr. Jagan Mohan Reddy and his ilk are playing in the state of Andhra Pradesh. 

We (people of AP) are not new to this kind of politics. After YSR died, Sakshi flooded us with news of how 100s of people died out of shock. The last we heard, the number was pegged at about 600 people. We don't know the real number - it kept varying from 10s to 100s. 

And those were the days when Jagan Mohan Reddy was still in the Congress. He promised to meet the families of all those people who died "out of the shock/depression". He wanted the Congress High Command to give him permission for the same. Quite obviously, the permission was "denied" and he was advised to meet all the families at one place only. Jagan Mohan Reddy said it was against our culture (yes, he is the torchbearer of our culture too) to do so, and defiantly announced that he will visit the families. 

So far so good. How did he visit the families? 

Suppose he had to go to a village X in a district. He will first visit the district headquarters. From there, he will traverse all along villages A to W, before reaching the actual family in village X. Yes - he will stop at every single village. He will address a public meeting, and will formally open to the public a statue of YSR. In that public meeting, he will deride the current rule of Congress (of which he was still a member then). 

An entrouge will follow him. We will hear in Sakshi paper and channel that people are forcing him to stop at every village (A-W) before reaching X. Over a period that will range from anywhere between 1-4 weeks, he will have traveled the entire district and would have "consoled" maybe 10 families. 

This strategy will repeat in every single district. Maybe he even visited the districts twice (we would never know, for it is impossible to keep track of these visits!!). YSR died in Sept. 2009. Believe it or not, Jagan Mohan Reddy's "Odarpu Yatra" (Consolation Tour) is not yet over. He is still touring the state under the name of consoling the dead, and he is doing the exact opposite of that. 

Now, the Congress started getting uneasy. It tried to create a rift in Jagan Mohan Reddy's family. It was successful in doing that, and therefore Jagan quit the party. And from then on, there was no stopping him. And since every person who is outside the Congress automatically becomes corrupt, the law was unleashed on him. 

Jagan started using these "Odarpu Yatras" to generate sympathy for himself! The irony was stark - he was supposed to console families of those who apparently died for his father. The show was going on and on and on and on... 

In between he even resorted to 1 day and 2 days fasts on issues concerning farmers etc. Those events became a stage for him to showcase the support he has amongst MLAs. Once that purpose was achieved, another "Odarpu Yatra" was launched in another district. 

Meanwhile, a Congress minister (Shankar Rao) files a case in the High Court. The High Court orders a CBI enquiry into Jagan's wealth (the growth of which has been documented here and here). And since then, we have seen the CBI arrest Jagan's relatives, auditors, business partners, IAS officers, and ministers also! (All details about those cases, arrests are here and here). 

Jagan was accused number 1 in the chargesheet CBI filed. They arrested accused number 13 too, but not number 1! After facing flak, the CBI finally arrested him on the night of May 27, 2012. And that's what lead to 48 more deaths, which would mean Odarpu 2.0 will start when Odapru 1.0 will end (if and when it ends). 

The timing is suspect - no doubt about it. He was arrested just about 2 weeks before a crucial by-poll in AP (details of which are here). That is not my concern though. His disgusting politics over the dead is one of the worst things to happen to the state of AP, but then that doesn't seem to concern too many. They are busy with sympathizing with Jagan (for being a "victim" of politics, while all he merely did was to loot the state). They are busy eulogizing YSR for making the lives of the poor better (though they were looted too). 

Finally, the below snapshot in Sakshi newspaper exemplifies the depth to which Jagan can plunge: 

"7 year old stops eating because of CBI investigation of Jagan". 

Bye-elections in AP: Details of the seats

16 MLAs from the Congress party and1 MLA from the erstwhile Praja Rajyam Party voted against their party whips against the Congress government in Andhra Pradesh, way back in December 2011. The Speaker took his own sweet time to disqualify these 17 MLAs (he disqualified 16 and accepted the resignation of the lone (erstwhile) PRP MLA). 

These 17 MLAs were supporting YSR's son, Y.S.Jagan Mohan Reddy. 

Cine actor, Chiranjeevi resigned from his Tirupati assembly seat because he got "promoted" to Rajya Sabha by the Congress party. 

One member of Lok Sabha from the Congress party also resigned in support of Jagan. 

That makes it 18 Assembly seats and 1 Lok Sabha seat that will be going to the bye-polls on the 12th of June. 

Following is the list of the constituencies and the top 5 vote winners in each constituency in the 2009 general election. I will put up the list of candidates for this election as soon as they are available on the Election Commission site. 

This post will be a primer for readers to understand how people voted in the 2009 elections. Except for the Tirupati seat, winners from all the other seats are now contesting under the aegis of YSRCP. 

The Parkal and Tirupati seat results are also being keenly watched. Parkal result will show if the sentiment for Telangana runs stronger than the sentiment for YSRCP. The fight here might be a tight contest between TRS, BJP and YSRCP. The number of votes BJP got might be very less in 2009, but the recent election victory in Mahbubnagar (BJP got ~2000 votes in 2009 in the same seat) tells a different story. 

The Tirupati seat is being watched keenly because this will be seen as a verdict of the people on Chiranjeevi's decision to merge his party into the Congress. It is widely expected that the Congress party will lose here and a mere confirmation is awaited on June 15th. 

The contest in majority of the other 16 seats will mostly be one-sided. YSRCP is expected to win a majority (or even maybe a clean sweep) of these seats. These election results will alter the course of AP politics for sure. We will discuss more in upcoming posts.

For now, here's a look of the top five performers in each constituencies in 2009. Please click on the image for better viewing :). 

The Legend is this:

104. Parkal (2009 result)

127. Narsannapeta (2009 result)

152. Payakraopet (2009 result)

161. Ramachandrapuram (2009 result)

177. Narsapuram (2009 result)

186. Polavaram (2009 result) 

212. Prathipadu (2009 result)

220. Macherla (2009 result) 

227. Ongole (2009 result)

242. Udayagiri (2009 result)

244. Rajampet (2009 result) 

246. Kodur (2009 result) 

247. Rayachoti (2009 result) 

253. Allagadda (2009 result) 

263. Yemmiganur (2009 result) 

267. Rayadurg (2009 result) 

272. Ananthapur Urban (2009 result) 

286. Tirupati (2009 result) 

1 Lok Sabha constituecy is also going to polls. 


39. Nellore