AP Politics - Part 3

 The following article was written for MyInd Makers. Pasting it here for reference:

This is the 3^rd and last in a series on the political scenario of Andhra Pradesh. In part-1 we discussed the YSRCP and in part-2 we discussed the TDP.

Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party went alone in the 2019 elections. It won only 1 seat. Pawan Kalyan himself lost in 2 constituencies that he contested in. After spewing unbelievable vitriol on Modi and the BJP in the run-up to the 2019 elections, Pawan Kalyan meekly announced in late 2019 that he will be a part of NDA.

Despite joining the NDA, he had a love-hate relationship with the BJP. Not a single joint agitation was organised by the BJP-JSP in the state, because Pawan Kalyan felt that the stature of the state leadership of the BJP is not the same as his! News reports often indicated how he preferred to talk to the Delhi leadership and not the state leadership. He was pretty much going alone in his acerbic attacks on the ruling YSRCP, which were becoming popular by the day. As time went by, Pawan Kalyan realised that defeating YSRCP in 2024 elections is his primary aim and hence started warming up to the TDP, because if he stays only with the BJP, he will not make any electoral impact.

This creates a classic conundrum. Does this mean that there will be a TDP-JSP-BJP alliance in AP, similar to what happened in 2014? But then does that mean TDP returns back to BJP after all that vitriol pre-2019? Does the BJP want to get TDP back into the NDA fold? While answers were elusive to these questions, JSP continued to warm up to the TDP and when Chandrababu Naidu was arrested in September 2023, Pawan Kalyan went ahead and announced a formal alliance with the TDP. Where does it leave BJP in the scheme of things? We don’t know yet but Pawan Kalyan says he is confident that he will bring BJP onboard too!

Pawan Kalyan is a maverick. No one knows when he is active in politics and when he is active in movies. He often goes into a shell and till date hasn’t been able to carve out leaders of any significance from his party. The Jana Sena fought in alliance with the BJP in the recently concluded Telangana elections and lost all the 8 seats it contested in. His speeches rouse his cadre, of course. His punch dialogues are a treat for the fans. But like he himself told them – their whistles don’t translate into votes! He has travelled within the state more extensively post-2021 than ever before. Pawan Kalyan has a good hold over an ~20 lakh voters in AP, which is significant and hence makes sense for larger parties like TDP to want to be in alliance with the Jana Sena. Though he cannot win on his own, his vote bank in an alliance can bring significant benefits to the bigger party in the alliance.

What does 2024 hold in store?

As of now, we know that the fight is primarily going to be between YSRCP and the TDP-JSP alliance. Whether BJP will join or not, we have to wait and see. There are already strong rumours that that Prashant Kishor, who helped YSRCP in 2019 is now helping the TDP for 2024! The YSRCP is going to completely bank on the numerous welfare schemes that target most sections of the society. Surveys indicate a strong support from the women voters, in addition to support from religious minority groups in the state. Bye-election results have shown to us that there is anger amongst the youth because of the lack of employment opportunities within the state. Both the TDP and JSP are adept at crafting catchy slogans. The TDP is also trying to bank on the 14-year tenure of Chandrababu as CM.

Though the BJP is not a major player in the state, it can be rest assured of one thing – whoever wins, it can be assured of support in Parliament from both the parties! The fluctuating fortunes of all political parties in AP, over the past 4.5 years made for riveting political drama. We now await what the people have in store for the 2024 elections!