The following article was written for MyInd Makers. Pasting it here for reference:
The elections to the assembly of Telangana state have entered into their final phase – campaigning! The major contenders are the BRS-MIM alliance; the Congress and the BJP. Let’s take a look at where all these parties stand as of today.
The BRS-MIM alliance
MIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi is going about campaigning in the state that MIM will be contesting only in 9 seats; and everywhere else he is urging Muslims to vote for KCR “Mamu”. MIM has been KCR’s ally ever since the state of Telangana was formed. So much so that even developmental works in the old city were stalled at MIM’s insistence. Even the Hyderabad Liberation Day was not celebrated at MIM’s insistence. It is almost guaranteed that MIM will win 7 seats in this election.
This means that BRS has to win 53 seats. The current strength of BRS in the 119-member assembly is 100! They won 86 seats in the 2018 election; poached 12 Congress and 2 TDP MLAs into their fold, taking their number to 100! BRS has faced many electoral setbacks and also won many electoral battles since its 2018 victory.
There is palpable anger in the people on how the BRS woefully failed at even conducting recruitment exams; scores of food poisoning cases in state-run hostels; the increase in crime; the mishandling of the Dharani portal; the high inflation only in Telangana (KCR refused to reduce any taxes on Fuel); the anti-incumbency against MLAs who have become unbelievably arrogant; the mishandling of Paddy procurement and the corruption in real estate.
That said, there is also palpable satisfaction in people who get money/benefits from flagship schemes such as Rythu Bandhu; Pension; Dalit Bandhu (Dailt Family gets 10 lakhs!); the water and current availability for irrigation; and other smaller schemes. There are enough families in the state that have benefitted one way or the other because of the BRS government policies, but there are also enough families in the state that are angry at the BRS. The very fact that KCR chose to contest from 2 seats is indicative of the way the wind is blowing. This is precisely the reason why almost every poll is predicting that the margin for BRS will be smaller than last time or they may not even hit the magic mark of 53 (well, it’s actually 60 but then MIM will win 7).
The BJP
The BJP deserves a lot of credit for playing the role of an effective opposition for nearly 4 years. Despite winning only 1 seat in the 2018 elections, the party registered impressive victories in the 2019 Lok Sabha election (4/17); the GHMC elections (up from 4 to 48); 2 impressive assembly by-poll victories; and 1 impressive MLC victory. They were at the forefront of many agitation rallies against the BRS. The growth graph began to dip because of infighting in the party, which enabled the Congress to surge miraculously! The BJP also announced an alliance with the Jana Sena party in Telangana (giving them 8 seats). There are a few candidates left to announce and the manifesto of the party is also not yet out. The cadre is excited though, because of how well they have taken on the might of the BRS government over the past 4 years. The BJP will give a tough fight in a sizeable number of seats in the state.
The Congress Party
It is still a mystery how the Congress party recovered in Telangana. They couldn’t win their own seats in assembly by polls; performed woefully poor in GHMC elections; lost an incumbent byelection when the Bharat Jodo Yatra was in Telangana; and were written off by everyone. The victory in Karnataka gave a sudden fillip to their sagging fortunes. The infighting in the BJP and their slowdown was also happening parallelly and it looks like everything that could be right for the Congress party. Suddenly people started pinning for the Congress party. Just like in Karnataka, the Congress has promised six guarantees. The Congress has also announced its full list of candidates. However, people are fully aware of how bad Congress is at governance and keeping their promises. People are well aware of how the power situation in Karnataka was bungled by the Congress government in less than six months of coming into power. People are also aware of how 1/3rd of Congress MLAs jumped ship into BRS after the 2014 assembly elections. They are also aware of how 2/3rd of Congress MLAs jumped ship into BRS after the 2018 Assembly elections! BJP is popularising the slogan – A vote for Congress is a seat for BRS.
The people of Telangana vote on November 30th. What their choice is, will be known on December 3rd!
0 comments:
Post a Comment